The Whispers warned us...

Morning Musings 3.17.26- views from the island

phil dauber

Mar 17, 2026

‘In three words I can sum up everything I’ve learned about life: It goes on.’ - Robert Frost

Troubling…’300 billionaires and their immediate family members donated more than $3 billion — 19 percent of all contributions — in federal elections in 2024, either directly or through political action committees. Five presidential elections ago, before the Supreme Court’s 2010 ruling that lifted many remaining campaign finance restrictions, the share of billionaire spending was almost zero — 0.3 percent, to be precise.’ (Source: nytimes.com)

The Iran conflict continues to drive systematic repricing across global markets as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively paralyzed, with only around two transits per day compared to over 100 in peacetime .
Brent crude climbed toward $103 a barrel after Iran struck energy facilities around the Persian Gulf .
Israel announced it killed top Iranian security official Ali Larijani and Gen. Gholam Reza Soleimani, head of the Revolutionary Guard’s Basij force. US diesel topped $5 a gallon for the first time since 2022.
Europe rejected US calls to help reopen the Strait, with Greek PM Mitsotakis stating Europe won’t join military operations near Iran . The dollar pared earlier gains as Treasury yields retreated, while Moody’s warned the US could tip into recession in the next 12 months if oil prices stay elevated .
Oil prices surged more than 5% as several countries pushed back against Trump’s demand to help secure the Strait of Hormuz .
Bank of America and Standard Chartered raised Brent price forecasts, with BofA now expecting $77.50 per barrel for the year, up from $61 previously . The IEA called the Iran war the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, hitting 7.5% of global supply .
A WSJ survey suggests a prolonged period of elevated oil prices could prompt a rate hike by year end .
Indonesia’s central bank tightened foreign-exchange regulations as policymakers try to soften the impact of the war on inflation and the rupiah .
President Trump said on Monday he could postpone a highly-anticipated summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping if Beijing doesn’t help unblock the Strait of Hormuz. The meeting was set to take place between March 31 and April 2 (3).

Week-Ahead Calendar

Delta Air Lines: Issued a more optimistic sales target for the first quarter after bookings by leisure and corporate customers accelerated into March . Delta now sees sales in the high single digits through March, after previously guiding for a range of 5% to 7% growth . The company sees Q1 revenue of $15B-$15.3B and Q1 CASM-Ex up 4%-6%
Tencent: Expected to record its fifth straight quarter of double-digit revenue growth thanks to its core gaming and advertising businesses . Fourth quarter net income estimate is 55.05 billion yuan, with revenue estimate of 194.07 billion yuan
InPost: Expected to report results on March 18, 2026, with fourth quarter revenue estimate of 4.49 billion zloty and adjusted Ebitda estimate of 1.22 billion zloty
Deezer: Expected to report results on March 18, 2026, with 2025 year adjusted Ebitda estimate of EU5.96 million and revenue estimate of EU559 million

Recent Earnings Reports

Trustpilot: Reported operating profit for the full year of $16.0 million, beating the average analyst estimate of $15.4 million
Travis Perkins: Reported adjusted operating profit for the full year of GBP133 million, meeting the average analyst estimate
Fraport: Reported Ebitda of EU1.44 billion for 2025, beating estimates of EU1.41 billion, and forecast 2026 Ebitda of about EU1.5 billion
‘The G-7 SPR Bluff: Why 300 to 400 Million Barrels Changes Nothing’
‘Why China’s renminbi push matters even if it never rivals the dollar’ (ft)
‘ Retail investors pull billions from private capital’s credit gold mine’(ft)
‘Revenge of the Malthusians- Why the Hormuz crisis is about to break global grain (and activewear!) markets and what to do about it.’ (Blind Squirrel Macro)
‘Iran’s New Battlefield: The Global Economy’ (escalation trap)

Private Credit concerns surging

‘Private Credit Exec Admits “All” Marks Are “Wrong”’ (qtr)
‘Inside a $42 Billion Private-Credit Black Box: More Black Boxes’ (wsj)
‘It All Comes Down to Who Controls the Strait of Hormuz: The “Final Battle”’ (Ray Dalio)