Morning Musings 7.14.25

Views from the Island

phil dauber

Jul 14, 2025

“When you argue with reality, you lose, but only 100% of the time.” ~Byron Katie

Remember when people actually understood this?

Lots of observations today, so let’s get to it:

For those who don’t know, were the Bible written today, the role of Job would be played by a Jets fan.
The tennis over the weekend was amazing, and how about a Rumson kid winning the Scottish Open!’
I was confused though; isnt it supposed to rain every single weekend??
Day late and a dollar short. A new independent expenditure group named “New Yorkers for a Better Future Mayor 25” is launching a campaign against Democratic mayoral candidate Mamdani, with at least $20 million, according to people familiar with the plans.
What do you get the woman who has everything? Jane Birkin’s original Hermès bag sold for 8.5 million euros to a collector in Paris yesterday, the highest on record for a fashion item, according to Sotheby’s.
And for that man in your life? “A 25-kilogram (54-pound) rock known as NWA 16788 is estimated to sell at auction for $2 million to $4 million this coming Wednesday at Sotheby’s. The sample is believed to be the largest piece of Mars ever found on Earth”
Remember that quaint concept of three independent branches of government? The president is threatening to withhold his endorsement from any Republican senators who oppose the White House’s package of DOGE cuts, turning a planned vote next week into a loyalty test.
Demography is destiny. This doesn’t bode well for Germany ( not the only country with this issue)

The overarching theme is an administration caught between aggressive economic nationalism and the need for international cooperation, while domestic tensions reach dangerous levels. Markets are pricing in policy uncertainty but may be underestimating the systemic risks from political violence and institutional breakdown.
Dimon and others calling the markets ‘complacent’. To wit- last week we saw the market move even further out on the risk spectrum.
- Stocks hitting new all-time highs
- Bitcoin breaking out big
- VIX closing under 16
- Crude oil showing surprising resilience
- small-caps breaking out of their range against large-caps
Deja Vu all over again: Trump dialed up trade tensions again by announcing a 30% tariff on imports from the EU and Mexico, effective Aug. 1.
Front running tariffs? “China’s exports growth tops expectations in June; rare earth shipments surge 60% to record high” (CNBC)
The President and his allies are opening a new front against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, criticizing his handling of the central bank’s $2.5 billion HQ renovation. https://bloom.bg/4eLZaC9
“Trump to announce "aggressive" Ukraine weapons plan” (Axios)
- "Trump is really pissed at Putin. His announcement tomorrow is going to be very aggressive," Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) told Axios.
“Goldman Sachs is testing viral AI agent Devin as a ‘new employee’”(TechCrunch)
“The Consulting Crash Is Coming” (FP)
“How QAnon and Epstein sparked Trump's political crisis”
De-grossing continues. Fundamentals aren't driving price; positioning is. High short interest/retail favourites squeezed. High-quality + momentum took a breather. Vol Control is still reallocating and CTAs are still buying. It's all mechanical
- Goldman's latest Prime data shows this:
  - Fundamental L/S gross exposure fell -1.3 %pts, now 211.7%
  - 87th %ile vs 1Y lookback, 96th %ile vs 3Y
  - Net exposure fell -0.1 %pts, now 51.7%
  - 39th %ile vs 1Y lookback, 42nd %ile vs 3Y
  - (Goldman has Fundamental net % -2.3pts YTD, with markets at ATH)
Big expiry this week
Remember when NYC taxi medalliosn sold for seven figures?