Morning Musings 7.1.25
VIews from the Island
“I’d rather have questions I can’t answer than answers I can’t question.” Richard Feynman
Ah, the good old days in NYC
Happy Bobby Bonilla Day! Only 10 years to go. The. Dumbest. Contract. Ever. The GOAT of bad contracts.
The hallmark of a good coach is ability to make halftime adjustments. Something to watch for as we wait for the 2nd half kickoff today. What and where are adjustments made?
A bit of a detour here, driven by Professor Feynman’s quote.
The short-term, revolving-door nature of today’s politics makes systemic problems almost impossible to solve, and even mention of them is considered the ‘third rail’ of politics. We are not asked to confront the tough questions by leadership for fear of damaging their careers, at the expense of longer-term health. “Kick the can’; check with Greece and Argentina for how well that ends.
Whatever your opinion of Donald Trump, he has brought up the more challenging and controversial issues, immigration and trade, especially with China chief among them. There’s an argument to be that his solutions-for political partisan and personal preference reasons, are too extreme, but at least the issues are being addressed.
We need to update the expression; in today’s technological world, ‘third rail’ seems ancient. “Server room’ maybe?
Technology, while not as sexy as ICE deportation raids, is a far bigger issue for the long-term employment outlook in this than immigration. Sorry, deportation hawks, but that’s just numbers. Why has no President since Clinton-when the size and shape of this looming problem began to emerge, made this a priority, informed the public, and created a meaningful program to re-train workers. They have all failed in this regard.
Venice, Italy, can expect to reap a $1.1 billion reward from Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sanchez’s controversial, star-studded wedding, according to Italy’s Tourism Ministry. CNN
Senate is taking a tiny bit longer than anticipated to pass the reconciliation bill while grumbling in the House grows louder. Going to be a hard lift to keep all the factions in line.
Grab your popcorn: From Politico-
After a three-week hiatus from politics, Musk has spent much of the past 24 hours hammering away at the bill on X, renewing his criticisms from early June. Republicans who back Trump’s bill after preaching spending cuts will face Musk-funded opponents in primaries, he warned, and see their faces emblazoned on “Pinocchio” posters drawn up by the world’s richest man. — and now Trump is hitting back hard…Shortly before 1 a.m., Trump finally hit back with a long social media post of his own, seeking (again) to frame Musk’s opposition as a bid to cling on to EV subsidies, mentioning Musk’s South African roots and threatening a Doge investigation into his government contracts.
'In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.' (Benjamin Graham) Right now, we are in total voting mode; this is a ‘vibe’ market; long-term uncertainty is driving the longer-term plays to the sdelines, and the fire hose of news gives cause for big short term swings. Economic implications of tariffs and deportation ( or avoidance of the same) of large numbers of (mostly unskilled) workers are ignored or at trivialized. The continuing geopolitical flashpoints met wth a yawn. This can continue for quite some time, but when it ends, it is not with whimper.
“US narrows trade focus to secure deals before Donald Trump’s tariff deadline” FT :
Global powers scaled down their ambitions for trade deals with Washington, barely a week before President Donald Trump’s tariff reprieve expires. The European Union looks likely to accept a universal 10% import tariff, but wants exemptions on major exports including alcohol, cars, and pharmaceuticals, according to Bloomberg. Meanwhile, India is expected to sign an interim trade deal with the US in order to protect the South Asian nation’s politically sensitive agricultural exports, the Financial Times reported. The White House itself is backing off its initial promises to reshape the global trading system, and is instead settling for a “narrower, piecemeal plan,” the FT said, before a 90-day suspension of Trump’s “Liberation Day” duties expires.
I do not think the Administration hates this
Lower dollar and upcoming bank deregulation will help absorb this expected tsunami of issuance.
Housing continues to wave a giant yellow flag
The Japanese wing of Burger King is rolling out a 2,590 yen (US$18) Baby Body Burger in association with the Japanese Sumo Association, billing the beastly sandwich as a “yokozuna-rank” burger. The item debuts just before the Nagoya Grand Sumo Tournament. The burger weighs in at 668 grams, features five burger patties, four slices of bacon and four slices of cheddar cheese